"Baseball is Heaven's gift to Mortals"

The Yanks are coming... Maybe...

2008-08-16T22:41:20Z

*The following is a post taken from The Angry Bench Coach, my new blog. Please visit the site there at www.theangrybenchcoach.com.*

The following piece is a column from one of our guest writers, Geoff, who runs the Bleeding Pinstripes. Visit his site and give him the TABC bump.

I've been promising my boy Reid a piece for a while now on the Yankees' chances this year, and since I'm waiting for my iPhone to back up anyway, here goes.

First let's get up to speed on where we are. My thought going into the recent brutal road trip, and even the few series' before (Boston, Minnesota, Anaheim, Baltimore) was that the Yankees season would take shape by the time they got back.

Not good news.

And last week I was screaming for the Yankees to send Melky down to triple A, as I saw his usefulness solely as an outfielder and a pinch runner; two roles I felt Brett Gardiner was better suited for. And I was railing against starting Richie Sexson against lefties, preferring to see him strictly used as a pinch hitter. So what happens next? Melky gets demoted, Gardiner is recalled, and Sexson is waived.

Worse news.

I know. Sounds a bit off. I'm contradicting myself. But the truth is - what do I know? Nothing. I was the guy screaming for Tony Womack to get more playing time in '05; that Robinson Cano was a useless rookie. I was the guy saying that Posada was going to fade last year and end up at .270. That David Archuleta was going to get voted off the second week of American Idol because he was such a drippy little wuss. I shouldn't be right. This can't be good...

So what are the Yanks' chances? If you ask me, it always comes down to one key thing. Schedule. It's huge before the season even starts. Look at the Yankees. Every year they play the Angels ten times. And always predominantly on the road. Like clockwork. It's a marquee match-up, and the Angels are the one and only team that have had the Yankees' number. You think MLB is going to pass that up? Since the days of the unbalanced schedule, there is only one team outside of their division that the Yankees have played ten times. Yup. And it happens almost every year. And it's not just the Yankees. The schedule tells a lot of tales before the first pitch on the first Sunday night. Look at the Mets. Every year they play six brutal games against the Yankees. They lost the NL East to the Phillies on the last day of the season last year. Do you think the Phillies still would have pulled that off if they were forced to play the Yankees six times while the Mets got to kick around Baltimore and whoever else? How about the Blue Jays? They were way better than the Cardinals when the final out was called on the 2006 regular season. Better record, better team, you name it. They just had the misfortune of being fed to the Yankees and Red Sox 38 times. So the Jays don't even approach the playoffs, and the Cardinals get a shot at upset glory. While we're at it, the Red Sox might be the best example. Good enough to win two World Championships in four years, good enough to elicit whispers of "dynasty?" around the sports world. Imagine. They've only won their own division once in the last thirteen years. And even that was on the strength of exactly one swing game with the mighty Yankees. Point is, the schedule is huge. And it gets more huge as the games get ticked off and teams make moves to shore themselves up for the stretch run as we hit the last weeks of August.

So with that said, the theme for the last twenty-three Yankee games was to simply hang on. This looked to be their most difficult stretch of the season. Three at Boston, three against Minnesota, four against LA, three against Baltimore, four at Texas, three more at LA, and three in Minnesota to close it. Twenty-three brutal games. And as I said, it didn't exactly go swimmingly. They were 10-7 in the first 17. Then they needed to grasp and clutch for some wins while Boston and Tampa played the Royals and Seattle, over and over. They didn't. They lost 5 of 6, with the lone win coming in 12 innings. So now they're a big pile of games behind Boston and a big pile of games behind Tampa.

So what's next. Tampa is going to lose. Probably a lot. Tampa is not a good road team. They've been good lately, but that's mostly because they've played the Royals, the Mariners, and the recently castrated A's. They did a great job of seizing on a bizarre schedule that featured a lopsided number of early games at home. When they get back East they're going to lose. They're going to lose to the Yankees and they're going to lose to the Red Sox. Especially since they've been riddled with injuries that aren't going to get better. The problem is they're so far out in front it might not matter. To the Yankees, anyway. I think the Red Sox are going to catch them. The Red Sox aren't going to lose any ground. They don't play well on the road either, but they're a veteran team that has incredible resilience and knows how to win. They're loaded with tough outs and they're never out of a ballgame. But they've also been bitten by injuries, which is going to keep them from the World Series, but I think they win the East.

So can the Yankees catch the Rays and everyone else in front of them for the Wildcard? They could. But it's going to be so difficult to make up all that ground. On paper they are more talented than anybody outside of the Red Sox and the Angels. And they, too, are a proud veteran team that always seems to find a gear to get there. I think they need to get Hughes back healthy (I'm not even going to mention Pavano, because that truly would be hilarious), and they need to get Joba back healthy. And if they get the Ferocious Lion, Hideki Matsui, back in any meaningful way, they could make a run. The schedule includes lots of Boston (always difficult but never scary for the Yankees this time of year), and three more against the Angels (0-3). Other than that there are a lot of winnable games against beatable teams.

Bottom line: unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely.

We're probably looking at the Angels feeding on the hapless National League to give Mike Scoscia his second piece of Orange County hardware. Probably. But probably isn't definitely. That's why they play the games, as the old saying goes. What I can say definitely, is that my boys and I will be waving the flag in section 24 at the Stadium until the last pitch is thrown. Right until the end.

And we'll be rooting like hell for the Yankees to win the World Series.

Thanks to Geoff. Again, visit his blog, the Bleeding Pinstripes.

Rocky Road (Bleeding Pinstripes) - August 12th, 2008

Is Rich Harden Pitching in God Mode?

2008-08-01T17:58:33Z

*The following is a post taken from The Angry Bench Coach, my new blog. Please visit the site there at http://www.ballhouse.blogspot.com.*

For those of you who haven't been following Rich Harden lately, be prepared to be amazed. Harden, who busted onto the scene with the A's in 2004 -- which was also the last time he started more than 20 games -- has returned, and is pitching in rare form, (which means he is pitching in real major league games, as opposed to those mysterious simulated games.) He spent five weeks on the sidelines this year with a strained right shoulder earlier in the season. Shortly after his return, he was traded to the Cubs. And Harden has managed to remain healthy for a solid three months now, and things seem to be back on track.

Most importantly, Harden is owning the National League. Now, we know that the when a pitcher and batter face each other for the first time, the advantage generally lies with the pitcher. And this is why pitchers, when changing leagues, tend to perform better, (see Bronson Arroyo.) In four starts with the Cubs, Harden's stats are as follows:

	DEC	IP	HA	ER	BBA	SO
SF	-	5.1	5	0	3	10
ARI	L	7.0	1	1	2	10
FLA	-	5.0	2	1	3	10
MIL	W	7.0	6	1	0	9
TOTAL	1-1	24.1	14	3	8	39

Those are pretty impressive numbers. Simply put, since joining the National League, Harden has gone off on NL batters. Especially with the 14.43K/9IP. The 1.11 ERA and the 0.91 WHIP? These are God numbers. Overall, Harden's season numbers aren't that far off the mark either. Despite having pitched 61 fewer innings than strikeout leader CC Sabathia, (101 v. 162), Harden has just 26 fewer strikeouts, (131 v. 157). Harden's season ERA is 2.04, and his WHIP is 1.09. And of course, that 11.64K/9IP. (Scott Kazmir is in 2nd place among full time starters, with 9.95K/9IP.) Opponents are batting .196 against him. Let me repeat that -- when you go up against Rich Harden, you are essentially a Mendoza Line Hitter.

Quite frankly, Mr. Harden is spewing fire out of his right arm. And if that shoulder stays intact, the Cubs would do well to sign this man for a very, very long time, (he is only 26). Now that Dusty Baker is out, they can count on actually being able to use the arms that they sign in the future. As far as I am aware, Lou Pinella doesn't have a strange habit of throwing his young pitchers out there for 130 pitches each start until their arm flies towards home plate, (see Kerry Wood; Mark Prior.)

Remember Mark Prior? - April 8th, 2007

UPDATES

2008-04-27T21:20:18Z

Now, obviously I haven't posted in some time. I made a post on the new site circa opening night, but since MLBlogs was down, I didn't get to make that post here until now.

Or so I thought.

I am not very fond of the new site redesign at MLBlogs. I understand that with migration come various technical issues. In any case, I simply don't have the time to mess around with visuals and stuff here right now, so just go to the new site to stay current. As one of the original bloggers who joined in the first week of MLBlogs launch back in like 1998, (but seriously, 2005), I do have a sense of loyalty and will get all this sorted out eventually - especially now that it is free. Hopefully, the long term plan is to keep posting going simultaneously at both sites, something that wasn't planned when I had to pay to keep this one up.

Check out the new site here:
http://ballhouse.blogspot.com/

Right now it is called the Ballhouse. I don't care for that title, but I had to call it something. So I will continue taking suggestions for new ones. But seriously - check it out, bookmark it, make comments, do what you need to do.

First half AL MVP: Magglio Ordonez

2007-06-28T21:18:05Z

Sure, we're not to the All Star Break quite yet, but we're halfway through. Over the next couple of days, we're going to take a look at the best players in each league thus far.

Magglio Ordonez: 13 HR, 68 RBI, .377 BA, .452 OBP

This was a tough pick. In the end, it came down to Magglio Ordonez and Alex Rodriguez. And here's where we start splitting hairs a bit. First off, it is the Most Valuable Player award. So you have to ask yourself, who does more for their team, Ordonez or Rodriguez? Rodriguez had more than twice as many HR (28 to 13,) but Ordonez has 34 doubles to Alex's 18. In the end, they have about the same extra base hits, and Alex has 77 RBI's to Ordonez's 68. The main difference, and what gave Ordonez the prize, was the average and OBP. Ordonez has struck out 33 times to Alex's 60. His batting average is 46 points higher, and his OBP is plus 23 points. There isn't a lot of difference there, but it's all we have to go on. Ordonez puts the ball in play more often, and he rarely strikes out.

In general, Alex is probably the better hitter, and the stats are barely in Magglio's favor. Both of them are above-average fielders at their position. However, Alex is not considered the leader of his team, and when his team is slumping, there's talk that he's going to leave next year. It will always be Jeter's team, and if Babe Ruth started tomorrow's game, it would still be Jeter's team. So we can't hold that against him. But you get the feeling that he's just not the most important player on the team. He'll never make a Jeterian dive into the stands. I'm not going to hold the muscled-up ladies against Alex, but it is a slight off-field distraction. And you get the feeling that Magglio seems to have more of a team motivation in him. Of course, that could all be ****. I live in Michigan, not New York, so there might be some favoritism. But the bottom line is that, when Magglio comes up to the plate, he's more likely to get on base or move the runners along than Alex is.

BHGM has officially moved to http://ballhouse.blogspot.com. You can also go to www.bihgm.com and be redirected to the site.

First half NL Cy Young Winner: Jake Peavy

2007-06-27T19:52:19Z

Sure, we're not to the All Star Break quite yet, but we're halfway through. Over the next couple of days, we're going to take a look at the best players in each league thus far.

Jake Peavy (9-2): 105 IP, 113 K's, 2.14 ERA.

Jake Peavy has been a great pitcher for quite some time now. As a matter of fact, if it weren't for his 2006 hiccup, many would probably regard him as the greatest pitcher in the game. After all, Peavy finished 2004 with a 2.27 ERA, and '05 with a 2.88 ERA and 216 K's in 203 IP. However, pitching for a less-than-stellar Padres team, he went just 28-13 combined. In 2006, he had an 'off' year. Most of his stats were identical, except that he gave up significantly more hits, resulting in a 4.09 ERA.

In 16 games so far, Peavy has gone 9-2. He leads the NL in strikeouts with 113 - that's 9.69K/9IP, and batters are hitting a meager .216 off him. However, his most remarkable statistical improvement - and there have been many - has been his ability to keep those balls that are put in play on the ground. Previously, Peavy had been a slight fly-out pitcher, hovering around a G/F of 1.20. This year, his G/F ratio is at 1.49. The result is 1 HR allowed and 10 double plays. In comparison, he forced 10 and 13 DP's in all of 2005 and 2006, while allowing 18 and 23 HR, respectively. While 1.49 is generally the line between a ground ball and fly out pitcher, it is an 'increase' over his career average and shows that Peavy has changed something on his pitches, resulting in fewer HR and more DP's. That provides evidence that his performance this year has not been due to mere chance, but rather to a marked change. Of course, the debate of a pitcher's control over a batted ball is one for another blog entirely.

The reality is that Peavy is having a season nearly identical to that of his 2005 campaign, but while giving up fewer walks. This, along with the G/F ratio, again shows that he is not having a string of lucky starts. As such, Peavy wins out and takes away the Ballhouse's first half NL Cy Young Award.

The competition wasn't easy, and Peavy wasn't the original choice here. But after some discussion, Kevin and I decided that he deserved it. The two other finalists were teammate Chris Young and LA Dodger Brad Penny. However, the fine folks at ESPN, in all their wisdom, provided us with some pretty compelling stats that shifted the voting in Peavy's favor. One of them is a Bill James innovation called the "Game Score." Peavy's AGS, (Average Game Score,) was 63.1, while Young's was 60.7, and Penny's was 59.9. Interestingly enough, this showed that the Ballhouse's initial picks of the top three NL pitchers were correct. The next highest regular NL starter was Cub Rich Hill, with 58.6.

We'll be continuing our first half awards with our AL/NL MVP and AL/NL Rookie of the Year later this week.

First half AL Cy Young Winner: Dan Haren

2007-06-25T23:55:07Z

Sure, we're not to the All Star Break quite yet, but we're halfway through. Over the next couple of days, we're going to take a look at the best players in each league thus far.

Dan Haren has quietly become one of the most outstanding pitchers in the game. He had a good year in 2005, his first with Oakland. He finished with an ERA of 3.73 in his first full year as a starter. He followed up in 2006 with similar numbers, albeit a slightly higher (4.12) ERA. He did, however, increase his strikeouts from 163 to 176, and knocked his walks down from 53 to 45. Home Runs remained a problem, as Haren gave up 31 shots in 34 starts.

But this year, Haren is really doing special things, and he's been the model of consistency. He leads the majors with a 1.78 ERA, and at no point has his ERA been higher than 2.00. He is 9-2; however, his two loses came in the first two games of the year, where he gave up a combined 1 ER in 13 innings, (in an interesting turn of events, Haren managed to give up a 3-run HR which was wholly 'unearned.') Haren has not lost since April 7th, and has gone 6+ innings in all but one of his starts. He has only allowed 3 ER twice, and never more. His 'worst start' was his 3rd start of the year against the Yankees, where he gave up 3 ER on 4 hits and 4 BB over 5 innings. He is 7th in the AL with 89 K's and 2nd with a WHIP of 0.90. And the best part is that he's only 26 years old.

Haren, unlike some pitchers, has been remarkably consistent this year as we saw above. He keeps his team in the game every time he starts, and that's what you need from your ace. Haren, as you may recall, was acquired in a trade with the Cardinals in which the A's shipped of Mark Mulder. And, of course, we haven't seen much of him lately. For those who are curious, Mulder is currently rehabbing after rotator cuff surgery and has almost no timetable for return. Barry Zito has gone arsonist after landing the richest free agent pitching contract ever with San Francisco, and Tim Hudson has been a strange guy for the Braves as well. Has anyone ever considered the possibility that the A's burn through young arms, as they have no hope of resigning them? Note that Haren averaged 220 IP in'05 and '06 and is on pace for 243 this year.

Haren, who supposedly pitches for a 'small market team' - and by that, we mean a team that plays on the West Coast and rarely meets expectations come October - has not gotten a lot of credit for his outstanding play. So here you are Dan. And I would suggest a haircut, but apparently the birds nest is working out well, so just leave it alone.

Also - thanks go out to Deadspin for the link to this weekend's "Milton Bradley - Looking for work" post. Brought the site a couple thousand extra hits. Regarding those comments, you guys are going to have to take up those issues with the Royals; they're the ones that traded for the guy. So, you're kind of arguing with facts by stating they don't need him. Additionally, if their prospects are so talented, why are they in last place?

Also, another note. Our new site, Ballhouse, is pretty much up and running. We don't have the tools all in order, and the formating isn't nailed down yet. Heck, we're not even sure we're sticking with the name. However, you can start reading the stuff over there and changing your bookmarks. If you're using any RSS Feeds, those are all set up as well. Furthermore, the domain name BIHGM is back online. So if you go there, it will automatically direct you to whichever site we find ourselves then.

Watch out for the White Sox meteorite

2007-06-24T21:40:11Z

The White Sox are really bad now. They aren't just crashing back down to earth. They're streaking through the atmosphere, the heat shield isn't holding up, and it looks like the 'chutes aren't going to work either. They're going to make a giant-sized crater in the ground. But again, we're not just going to say things and not provide evidence to support our claims. As usual, we're going to use numbers.

The White Sox are in a 2-way tie for the fewest wins in Major League Baseball. They're 29-42.

That about says it all. Teams with better winning percentages than the White Sox include the Pirates, Orioles, Nationals, and Devil Rays. Teams with lower winning percentages consist of the Rangers, Royals, and Reds. In 2005 they won the World Series. In 2007 they're hanging out with the cellar-dwelling Royals. And GM Ken Williams is saying things like, "Something's got to happen. I'm tired of watching this."

As a result, White Sox management has begun to make some rather peculiar choices regarding player personnel. Especially when it comes to Mark Buehrle. By all accounts, he's a good guy, a clubhouse guy. Fan favorite. He did finish last year with an ERA circa 5. My opinion is that his arm is tired, as Buehrle has pitched more than 220 innings a year since 2001. He's probably lost some life on his moving fastball. He's a free agent after this year, but he was on record last year as saying he wanted to stay in Chicago. Sort of, we think. No one really knows what was being said. In any case, he is apparently trade bait. Why would you trade away a guy who you can really build something around? You know they're not going to get anything in return. But they're betting that they'll get more prospects that, five years down the line, will be worth more than Buehrle to them. I think they're underestimating Buehrle's staying power in this league, and that he will remain a great pitcher for another 10 years. The trick is signing the guy, and that's where they might be better off trading him away. Otherwise, they get nothing for him.

This string of loses was kind of predictable. Last year, Carl Everett accused GM Ken Williams of breaking up the team chemistry after he was traded away post-championship. Now, I'm certain that Carl didn't factor into the teams' chemistry as positively as he thinks. In fact, he thought the White Sox lacked leadership with him gone. Which is an interesting observation, as Carl Everett is currently a DH for the Free Agent squad, so he is now leading nobody. Everett also believes that we should implode Wrigley Field, and that even if we put every American child on 'roids, we would still lose more kids in war then to steroids. I'm not sure whether to call that Malthusian wisdom or just idiocy.

But Everett does have a point. A lot of important guys were shipped off, and nothing was really gained in return. Aaron Rowand was shipped off for Thome, who, as predicted, has been like a walking test ground for physical therapist students. And the Sox get Luis Terrero patrolling Center. McCarthy is gone, as is Cotts, as is Garcia, as is Frank Thomas. And not one single decent player has been acquired in any of these deals outside Thome. So you took a championship team, and in order to improve it, you traded away two starters, a reliever, a stand up centerfielder, a loud-mouthed DH, and an aging and oft-injured slugger for an aging and oft-injured slugger*. Probably not the best example of "if its not broke, don't fix it."

* - Jim Thome and Frank Thomas are also considered 'similar batters' according to baseball-reference.com, not just me.

Milton Bradley - Looking for Work

2007-06-24T01:11:26Z

Kansas City, as we know, is not the epicenter of baseball activity. Let's cut out the superlatives, they're just really awful.

So, say you're the general manager of the disaster that is the Royals organization. You've got no talent, you've got no money, and you've got no fans. Then, some guy offers you a veteran outfielder with a career average of .270 for the ridiculously low price of Leo Nunez, him of the 6.99 ERA and 67 career MLB innings. You're going to want to take that deal no matter what, right? I mean, you can't even rip someone off like that in fantasy baseball.

And this is exactly what happened when the A's tried to ship off the ticking firebomb that is Milton Bradley to the Royals. Milton was perfect for this deal. He's just the fire that KC needs. And we'll get to that in second. The point is, Kansas City canceled the trade when they discovered Bradley had suffered an oblique injury. This is just nonsense. I don't care if Milton comes to you with a fractured leg and he's bleeding from his ears. You take the guy! He's talent! He's got to be better than 7 of the guys you're starting now, easy. And what is your argument for this? That you need a player now, so you're holding on to Nunez? Nunez isn't even in the majors. He hasn't pitched in MLB all year. So even if you have to wait 6 weeks on Bradley, which is generous, he's still going to give you more than Nunez.

And now Milton is out of luck. No one else is going to take him because he's about as volatile as jet fuel over an open flame. Only the Royals need talent that bad, and Kansas City is about as small a market you can get, where you can just reasonably hope that when he screws up, no one will ~~notice~~ care. So this was a great deal. But hey, Milton is a full 29 years old, and you never know when he might be a worse bet in the outfield then Emil Brown or David DeJesus. Or any of the 9 guys on your DL. Mark Teahen (RF) can actually hit, but you can always send him back to 3B and kick out Alex Gordon. But now, for fun, let's explore the dangerous world of Milton Bradley:

April 2004: Indians trade Milton Bradley to make room for Coco Crisp.
June 2004: Ejected by Terry Craft, Bradley leaves his equipment in the box and returns to chuck a bag of balls on the field. Suspended 4 games.
September 2004: Fan throws plastic bottle on field. Bradley responds by throwing plastic bottle violently at man nowhere near original launch site. Suspended 5 games.
November 2004: Police pull over Bradley's "friend." Bradley stops alongside his friend on the highway, and approaches police yelling, "why did you stop my friend." Officer: "Return to your vehicle." Milton: [Hands behind back] "Arrest me." Officer: "Alright, let's go to jail." Served 3 days in the slammer.
August 2005: Calls Jeff Kent a racist.

So, yeah. There's really no telling when Milton is going to strike next. Or where, for that matter. And the Royals canceled on their chance to get a hold of this gem of a guy? Why?

You know, you guys should go visit Ballhype

2007-06-23T23:14:29Z

Fine folks over at Ballhype, really. And I'll tell you why. Not only have they developed this way for everyone to get advertising for free, but now I can bet on sports games at the same time, but with not real money. Let me explain how it works. It's a points system. You simply select the winner of the game, and then if your pick loses, you lose 1 point. All those points are then added together, one point is added, and the result is distributed to those who picked the winning team. Nine people pick the Braves to win. Five pick the Tigers. The Tigers win. So everyone who picked the Tigers gets 2 points. Most points at the end of the week wins a t-shirt and feature spot.

Maybe this is just the kind of thing Pete Rose needs, since he clearly cannot help himself.

Rick Ankiel is still hitting the ball

2007-06-23T23:07:00Z

Remember when Rick Ankiel broke down and admitted that he didn't have pitcher stuff? Instead, he had outfield stuff, and he was going to do that instead. It must be nice to have so much talent that you can switch positions.

We checked back with him last year, and he was doing pretty well for himself. And now, the guy who struck out 19.7 batters/9IP in his senior year of High School is looking like he is a right fielder for good. On June 16th, he had 3 homers in one game. He now has 19 on the year, along with 52 RBI. (I began writing this piece on June 20th. Since then, Ankiel has gone 0-13.) Not bad, Rick. And he turns 28 in a month. How insane would it be if, having led the Cardinals to the NL Central title in 2000, he comes back in 2007 to replace the old and decrepit Jim Edmonds? As I mentioned before, I like Jim, but it might be time for him to launch a preemptive strike of the "you can't fire me, I quit" variety. The Cardinals probably have the most lopsided drama-to-wins ratio of any team besides the Astros. And maybe the Orioles. Anyway. Rick's problem is that he can only play right field, apparently. This is the stupidest thing I have ever heard. Sure, the ball comes off the bat differently to left or right. But have you ever looked in a mirror? It's the same effect. They're basically the same position. Center, you can't learn - you just have to be an athletic guy. But left and right are dopplegangers. It takes time to adjust, but the Cardinals have the entire 2007 season to play with. This whole year is already one big training exercise, except all the 'trainees' are really old. I submit that Juan Encarnacion's "success" in right shouldn't keep Ankiel out of the bigs, as La Russa says. The only real problem is that he has no options remaining. And the Cardinals can't afford to give up any more outfielders for no reason. So they want him to develop, and they don't think he can get good playing time in the Majors yet. So he's still down in the minors.

In fairness to the Cards, this is probably the right decision. Ankiel is only batting .270 in the AAA PCL league. So he isn't setting the world on fire, by any means. So one argument is to give the guy some limited MLB experience while the stakes are low, and risk losing him to another team if he has to get sent down again. Or you leave him in the minors to develop at a 4AB a day pace. Basically a wash.

Also, thanks go out to geoff for the comment the other day. I forgot about that, because I forgot that you guys posted comments. Because you stopped posting comments. Anyway, it looks like we have found a new home at http://ballhouse.blogspot.com. Nothing concrete yet. Right now, we're calling ourselves the Ballhouse. Not sure I like that name, in fact I'm pretty sure I don't. Best suggestion for a new name gets a prize. Send it to me at reidksmith at hotmail. Include your business in the subject line, or I might delete it along with the payment due notices from Discover.

Statistical proof that Andruw Jones has stopped hitting

2007-06-23T19:20:15Z

A while back, we made note of Andruw Jones' decreasing effectiveness at the plate after he struck out 5 times against the Red Sox. Well, at that point, Andruw's average was a comparatively stellar .212. He is now batting .199. Now, I know we have all moved on from using batting average as the sole statistical judge of a player's ability, but in this case it's really all we need. He isn't hitting the ball, he isn't getting on base, and when he does make contact, it's not very good - his slugging percentage is .383. To show just how bad this is, consider this. Since his last multi-hit game on June 9th - just his tenth this whole year, all but one of which have been 2-hitters - Jones has gone a depressing 2-39. So that's a .051 average. However, his season average has dropped only 26 points, from .225 to .199. And, as I will always point out, A. Jones has not exactly dropped in the batting order. Inexcusably, he has been batting 4th or 5th in almost every game. Cox dropped him to sixth on the 18th and 19th, only to throw him back in the 4-hole on the 22nd. Is it that he just can't help himself? Is Cox going senile? It's one thing to stick with your player when he slumps, but this guy has no business within sight of the 5-hole, as we will demonstrate.

Take a larger sample size; consider the entire month of June. Jones has exactly 10 hits in 79 AB's, for a .127 average. I'm sure many of you are thinking, 'but the walks count too - he's getting on base.' Ok. Fine. He has just four walks. Lets give him four more singles in four more at bats. He is now batting .169. He has not reached base on error or a fielders' choice once, and therefore his OBP is also .169. Meanwhile, he has 18 strikeouts. In other words, his strikeout average for June is .217. Jones is more likely to strike out than he is to reach base by any means. Let's go further. He has 3 homers, and has scored 5 runs and has 6 RBI. He has 21 total bases. So his basic runs created (TB x OBP), is at 3.549, for you sabermetricians out there. 20 games in June; that gives him .177 runs created per game. Fellow outfielder Jeff Francoeur, who is also struggling - a .262 OBP through June - has 6.288 runs created this month in just one more AB. Catcher Brian McCann, playing hurt (.238 OBP) and with just 3/4 as many AB's, has produced 4.522 runs. Therefore, even by his struggling teammates' standards, Andruw Jones is a curse at the dish this month. Edgar Renteria, who is not struggling, and making $4 million less, has created 15.17 runs.

So now we know - not only is Andruw struggling at the plate, but he is hurting his team as well. We're not just blindly throwing his average out there and saying he's a crummy player. The truth is, the guy is really hurting the team. And he either doesn't realize it, or he doesn't care. I don't think he's pouring over his splits with a calculator, but he has to have some self-awareness. But Jones just brushes aside these criticisms. "I've never been an average hitter. Average isn't a big deal to me." Alright. But is scoring a big deal to you? Is getting "market value" next year a big deal to you? "I just go out and play the game. Everybody struggles. I'm just getting pitched good." Andruw, you're not just getting pitched good. I don't think we should be looking for a tell in Jones' stance anytime soon. You've been in the bigs for 11 years. People aren't just now figuring you out. But let's be real. You can't take anything this guy says to mean anything. He knows he's hitting .199. He doesn't need guys from the papers asking him why. He doesn't know why, and they know it. So he gives them something to print, they print it, etc.

And another interesting note. Chipper Jones is playing hurt. And he's peeved. He's the short story.

Reporter: Chipper, do you feel you are rushing to return from your most recent injury, which was to your... groin?
Chipper: "Probably. But I feel backed into a corner. Let's just say there are people who don't believe me. Let's just say that and leave it at that."

You know what? I understand that these guys have to be in peak shape to go to work every day. I get that if they aren't at least 90%, they're not effective at work. But can you imagine this conversation happening?

Reporter: Weekend Athlete, do you feel you are rushing to return from your most recent injury?
WA: You know, I didn't want to come out today. But the boys said I had to. I told them I was hurt, they didn't believe me.

Most of us get paid to do things with our heads, not our bodies. If your brain is at 90%, do you call in sick? No. So Chipper, maybe you don't want to play. Maybe you feel hurt. But you're getting paid to play baseball. So when Bobby Cox tells you to play baseball, you play. Once you take that paycheck, it's up to Bobby. If you're really hurt, he won't play you. If he decides that he wants you to play, he know that he's risking a re-injury. He's judged that risk to be less substantial than the risk of playing without you. So go out there and do your job.

"Andruw Jones tells us about the bad days" - May 21, 2007.

Sorry about the downtime. I lost a friend of mine this week in a skateboarding accident. Parents, kids, please - wear your helmets. Just because it hasn't happened to anyone you know doesn't mean it can't.

A.J. Burnett will beat you in a foot race

2007-06-19T18:11:18Z

A little while back, we wrote A.J. Burnett a letter of apology. Basically for calling him a waste of $55 million. In the letter was a well-hidden clause, stating that "a reversion back to your early-season form will result in immediate rescindment of this letter." A.J. left his very next start with a sore shoulder. And now he's on the DL. In all fairness to A.J., this DL stint might not be 100% his fault. Itmight be the guy that threw him out for 118, 103, 103, 125, 117, and 130 pitches in his previous 6 starts. Way to go, Gibbons. But the dude is still looking to compete, and we can't knock him for that. First place finish too, clearly.

More Steve Phillips fun with numbers

2007-06-19T17:59:35Z

It's no secret that, even as far as baseball analysts are concerned, Steve Phillips is not the brightest of the bunch. I'm not exactly sure how he ended up with ESPN. He served as the Met's GM from 1997 to 2003. He is 'credited' with bringing in David Wright and Jose Reyes. But it's not like he went out and scouted the guys. After he was fired in 2003, it doesn't seem like he was gainfully employed until ESPN came knocking. And yes, I'm going to assume that ESPN came to Phillips and offered him a job before the 2005 season, not the other way around. What do you think Phillips' response was to that inquiry? "Why in the world do they want me working for them?" Back to the issue. We know have something to add to Phillips' crazy predictions:

2006: Jose Reyes will have a coming out year, hitting 30 triples, and steal 35 bases.
2006: Corey Patterson will hit 40 HR and get 140 RBIs. From the leadoff spot.
June 19th, 2007: Alex Rodriguez will have the greatest season of any Yankee right-hander, and will negotiate a new 10-year contract for about $35 million a year.

Alright... where to start... so Reyes would be fast enough to bust Chief Wilson's 1912 record of 28 triples, but not fast enough to get anything more than a mediocre number of steals. Actually, Reyes had 17 triples and 60 steals. Both league-leading numbers. And Corey Patterson got sent to AAA-ball. Whoops.

But this morning was something totally different. It's interesting that Phillips' actually tried to stay within his field of 'expertise' with this Alex prediction. But Alex is about to turn 32 in July. What kind of idiot is going to give this guy $35 million to play as a 42-year old? Ignore, for a second, the fact that a 10-year contract to anyone over 30 is a bad decision. You're going to take the most well-paid athlete in the world and give him a 40% raise, just as he reaches his pinnacle of performance? The fact is, no team is going to give Alex that kind of money, except, maybe, the Yankees. This is how that negotiation will go.

Scott Boras: Alex wants $35 million a year. 10 years. He's that good.
Cashman: Um, no. We'll give him $20 million. 4 years. Club option for x.
Boras: That's not good enough. He deserves more.
Cashman: Dude, only one other guy in MLB is making more than $20 million a year.
Boras: I have no leverage. No other team can afford to give me more than $15 million a year.

Stop it, Steve. Do you even listen to yourself?

"Are Steve Phillips and John Kruk stupid?" - April 11th, 2006

Someone needs to give Phil Garner the hint

2007-06-19T01:11:21Z

Not a lot of time tonight guys. But here's the deal. Watching the Angels v. Astros on CBSsportsline online, and Lackey is in a heck of a jam. Craig Biggio singled for just his 10th hit of the year - really! - a Pence strikeout, followed by a Berkman single, and it's two men on, two outs. Lackey does the sensible thing and pitches around Lee to bring up the #5 spot, Loretta. Sensible because Loretta isn't Lee, but still a tough spot, as Loretta is batting .317. And he ground rule doubles, bringing in two. Mark your calenders, boys. Because this is one of the only times that Phil Garner has constructed his lineup in an attempt to accomplish a goal - i.e., score runs - and his plan has actually come to fruition.

The Astros are 12th of 16 NL teams in runs scored. I have said before that managers do not hit, they do not pitch, and they never score runs. But this is partially Phil's fault. This guy is just about sabotaging his players, and we've gone over this before as well. But it still blows my mind. Why in the world is Craig Biggio still leading off? There is absolutely no reasonable circumstance - NONE - where you put your worst hitter in the leadoff hole, every single game. And Biggio is their worst hitter. It's nothing against Craig, it's just, he's 41 years old. He needs to be worrying about IRAs and 401Ks, not batting averages. Right now, the dude needs 10 more hits. I'm hoping that the second he reaches that number, Garner yanks the guy and sends him either packing to the 9-hole, or to the end of the bench. The guy has an OBP of .279. If you're a leadoff hitter, you want your batting average to be, hopefully, above that number. But at least around there. I just don't understand where Garner is coming from here, unless he is just trying to give Biggio enough AB's to ensure that he really does make it to 3,000 before the end of the season. I hope that's it.

But really, does it matter? The Astros aren't going anywhere this year. They're not acquiring a Carlos Beltran, or a Roger Clemens, or anything like that. This team is dead in the water. So who cares? Frankly, it's just really entertaining to see so much drama - the Brad Lidge situation, the Dan Wheeler/Chris Sampson issue, this Biggio deal - all this for a team that, after their July Firesale, (who are they going to sell, by the way? Adam Everett?) will probably finish the year with 95 loses.

And to continue where we left off - in the next AB Lackey allowed a 3-run shot to Mike Lamb. At this point, Lamb is 12 for 18 in his last 5 games, including tonight. He has 13 RBI. Of his 20 RBI total so far this season. Wow. So maybe the Astros' starship rides Mike Lamb to a 90 loss season instead. Who can tell?

The Battle for Missouri Supremacy

2007-06-14T16:22:43Z

There is one thing you have to love about interleague play. You can beat it up for screwing with the team's records. You can knock it for forcing AL pitchers to hit. Heck, you can even take issue with the over-commercialized, we're-going-to-stuff-it-down-your-throat advertising. But you can't say a bad word about some of the great Interstate match ups that take place every year. And I'm not talking about the Subway series, or the freeway series, or any of that garbage. I'm talking about Florida v. Tampa Bay. And, new to this year, St. Louis v. Kansas City. What used to be serious three-day slaughterhouse is now a send-in-the-clowns matchup. We're talking about two of the worst teams in the game right now. And tonight, they're pitting off for the decisive game 3.

It's been a real rubber band series so far. Mark Teahen had a single, double, and a triple to lead the Royals to a Game 1 victory over the Cardinals, 8-1. But the Cardinals came surging back to take Game 2, 7-3. And now Kip Wells faces Scott Elarton for the tie-breaker. Hows this for a series-deciding matchup? I don't even know what to say. I mean, is Kip Wells the better pitcher because his ERA is a full point less than Elarton's, at 6.33? Or is Elarton the better pitcher because he only has 2 loses, and not 10? Seriously guys, this game could go either way. You can just see these two clubs battling it out on the diamond. Beating the heck out of one another. After all, winner is the best baseball team in Missouri, right? And who doesn't wake up every morning wanting exactly that? Are they even playing this game at a major league ballpark? Is anyone even going to show up? Does anyone even care?

And after this, the Royals play the Marlins. There's another interleague matchup we have all been dying to see. Two teams that, quite frankly, could pack up their tents tomorrow and go home, (or move to Las Vegas, I guess,) and no one would notice. Who was the scheduling genius at MLB who decided, "hey, we've got this great marketing tool here with interleague play. It really gets the fans involved. Shows them something they've never seen before. And you know what the Missourians need to see? Another 100-loss team." Exactly. Maybe it will keep Royals fans from selling their loyalty on eBay when they realize, 'man, my fellow Marlins fan has got it even worse than I do. I think I'll hold on for one more year.' Don't hold your breath, brother. And by the way, once Dan Uggla comes crashing down from his turbo-orbit, that team is going to fall apart. Again. And it won't be Lou Piniella's fault this time, Curt.